Artikelen bij COM(2025)573 - Long-term forecast of future inflows and outflows of the EU budget (2026-2034) - Hoofdinhoud
Dit is een beperkte versie
U kijkt naar een beperkte versie van dit dossier in de EU Monitor.
| dossier | COM(2025)573 - Long-term forecast of future inflows and outflows of the EU budget (2026-2034). |
|---|---|
| document | COM(2025)573  |
| datum | 16 juli 2025 |
Brussels, 16.7.2025
COM(2025) 573 final
REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL
Long-term forecast of future inflows and outflows of the EU budget (2026-2034)
1. Introduction
2. Forecast of outflows of the EU budget 2026-2034
2.1. Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2028-2034 MFF
2.2. Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF
2.3. Payments for the completion of outstanding commitments made before 2021
2.4. Decommitments
2.5. NextGenerationEU
2.6. Evolution of the level of outstanding commitments
3. Forecast of inflows of the EU budget 2026-2034
3.1. Revenue sources
4. Conclusions
Annex II – Results of the forecast
Table 1.1 – Long-term forecast of future outflows over 2026-2034 for the MFF
Table 1.2 – Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF
Table 1.3 – Payments for the completion of pre-2021 commitments
Table 1.4 – Payments for 2028-2034 commitments
Table 2 – Forecast decommitments 2026-2027
Table 3 – Long-term forecast of outflows for NextGenerationEU
Table 4 – Change in the total outstanding commitments from 2026 to 2034
Table 5 – Long-term forecast of future inflows of the EU budget over 2026-2030
Table 6 – Long-term forecast of future inflows of the EU budget of 2028-2034 MFF
1.Introduction
This report I projects the inflows and outflows of the EU budget in accordance with Article 253(1)(c) of the Financial Regulation II . This fifth III edition forecasts the revenue and expenditure stemming from the multiannual financial framework (MFF) 2021-2027 IV , NextGenerationEU V and for 2028-2034 VI based on the Commission proposal for the next MFF VII .
The forecast differentiates between the reste-à-liquider (RAL) for 2026-2030, based on the legislation currently in force and the Commission’s proposal for 2028-2034 for the MFF and the Own Resources Decision 1 .
As regards revenue, the forecast until 2027 is based on the revenue system of the current Own Resources Decision VIII . The revenue projections also consider the Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community IX (‘Withdrawal Agreement’).
The estimates for payments in 2026 and 2027 take into account the revised expenditure ceilings (technical adjustment of the MFF for 2026) X and the commitment appropriations included in the financial programming accompanying the draft budget for 2026 XI , which incorporates the programme-specific adjustments under Article 5 of the MFF Regulation XII (MFFR) XIII as well as re-use of decommitments under Article 15(3)of the Financial Regulation.
The mid-term revision of the MFF 2021-2027 is included. Notably the net reinforcement of the expenditure ceiling for commitments of EUR 3.4 billion, together with changes to the overall allocations under Article 5 MFFR and Article 15(3) of the Financial Regulation XIV as well as reinforcements to special instruments. As regards the payment ceilings, the MFF mid-term revision makes it possible to adjust the 2026 ceiling by the amount equivalent to amounts unused in 2025 if necessary for financial needs in order to avoid the risk of backlogs.
The mid-term review of cohesion policy offers several flexibilities and financial incentives for Member States to voluntarily re-programme their cohesion resources to the priorities in the areas of competitiveness, defence, affordable housing, water resilience and energy transition. These incentives could speed up project implementation.
In addition, the Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) Regulation XV provides flexibilities for priorities dedicated to STEP in the cohesion programmes. The deadline for final application for an interim payment for the final accounting year of the 2014-2020 period has been extended until 31 July 2025.
This forecast also projects payments on all programmes under NextGenerationEU. This expenditure, additional to the spending under the MFF, is financed by proceeds from borrowing operations on the capital markets.
2.Forecast of outflows of the EU budget 2026-2034
Over the period 2026-2034 payments are estimated at EUR 2 375billion. The estimated annual average of outflows of the EU budget is EUR 263 billion.
They are composed of:
·Payments on outstanding commitments stemming from MFFs prior to 2021-27 estimated at EUR 13.4 billion;
·Payments on commitments made in the MFF 2021-27, which are paid partly in 2026-27 and partly in the MFF 28-34, estimated in total at EUR 714 billion;
·Payments from NextGenerationEU non-repayable support XVI estimated in total at EUR 107 billion.
·Payments on commitments for the MFF 2028-2034 estimated in total at EUR 1 642 billion.
For the period until the end of 2027, the forecast includes the programme-specific adjustments based on Article 5 of the MFF Regulation as modified in the mid-term revision of the MFF – yielding an overall impact of EUR 10.2 billion (in 2018 prices) for the whole period - and the re-use of decommitments under Article 15(3) of the Financial Regulation for the year 2027.
Chart 1 - Payments forecast by category
Payments on outstanding commitments stemming from MFFs prior to 2021-27 are estimated at EUR 1.9 billion on average for 2026-2034. They are expected to decrease and be phased out by end 2031
Payments on commitments made in the MFF 2021-2027 total EUR 89.3 billion on average, of which EUR 190 billion in 2026-27 and EUR 56 billion post-27. The forecast shows an increase in payments towards the end of this MFF, with a peak in 2027followed by a decrease towards the second half of the next MFF. This is consistent with past implementation patterns as the programmes reach cruising speed. NextGenerationEU payments are expected to be finalised in 2026.
As per the Commission proposal, payments on commitments made in the MFF 2028-2034 are on average EUR 235 billion, totalling up to EUR 1 642 billion over the period. Its peak is expected early in the MFF as the phase-out of previous MFFs overlaps with the new payments, which occur earlier than in the past programming periods.
The unallocated margin under the payment ceilings for 2026 is estimated at EUR 18.6 billion and in 2027 is estimated at EUR 3.2 billion. This margin is the difference between the payment ceiling (as per the last MFF technical adjustment) and the forecast of payments for programmes and instruments, which fall under the MFF ceilings.
Margins can be positive (i.e. forecast payments are less than the payment ceiling) or negative (i.e. forecast payments exceed the ceiling). This is because the payment ceiling in this MFF is even across the years (in real terms), while the expenditures vary. The Single Margin Instrument (Article 11(1)(b) MFFR) allows to adjust the payment ceiling over time, unspent amounts in one year increase the future ceilings. Therefore, the margins prior to 2026 increase the ceilings in 2026-2027 within the limits set by Articles 11(3) and Article 11(3a) MFFR. Considering these adjustments as well as the EUR 2.6 billion from the application of Article 5 MFFR, the payment ceiling for 2021-2027 is forecast to be sufficient to cover all expected payments. The risk of an abnormal backlog in payments is limited, though the available margin under the payment ceiling is very limited in 2027.
The payment ceiling for the next MFF is forecast to cater for the estimated payment needs.
3.Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2028-2034 MFF
The payments for the 2028-2034 MFF are forecast at EUR 1 644 billion over the period, covering over 80% of the MFF.
Heading 1 – Economic, social and territorial cohesion, agriculture, rural and maritime prosperity and security
The main driver of the payments profile in the 2028-2034 MFF will be the National and Regional Partnership Plans. Payments under heading 1 total EUR 965 billion. The payments forecast is based on the parameters set out in the sectoral legal act.
As of 2028, the EU is due to start the repayment of the debt issued under NextGenerationEU. For the MFF 2028-2034, the Commission proposes a fixed amount of EUR 24]billion per year in current prices for the repayment of interest and capital of the non-repayable support provided under NextGenerationEU. This means an overall amount of EUR 168 billion over 2028-2034. The fixed amount is calculated considering interest costs at forward rates with a safety buffer to account for interest rate uncertainty. If the interest rates turn out lower than estimated, the repayment of capital will be anticipated to keep at all times the fixed annuity. This approach ensures full predictability to the budgetary planning and for Member States contributions to the budget for this item. It insulates the repayment from market volatility and delivers a steady and predictable reduction of the liabilities stemming from NextGenerationEU as per Article 5(2) of Council Decision (EU, Euratom) 2020/2053.
Heading 2 – Competitiveness, prosperity and security
Payments under heading 2 total EUR 424 billion. Payments are mainly driven by Horizon Europe and by the European Competitiveness Fund.
Heading 3 – Global Europe
Payments under heading 3 total EUR 135 billion. Payments are mainly driven by the Global Europe .
4.Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF
Cohesion and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) represent more than half of the projected payments stemming from the 2021-2027 MFF. The implementation of these two policies largely drives the estimates of the long-term payment forecast.
Heading 2a - Cohesion policy
The draft budget for 2026 is above the central scenario of last year’s forecast XVII as the implementation of cohesion policy is picking up compared to the historic benchmark of the period 2014-2020. Yet, the European Regional Development Fund, the Cohesion Fund, and the European Social Fund Plus remain on aggregate below the historical profile. By end-2026 the payments for cohesion policy are forecast below the previous MFF (34% in the MFF 2014-2020 compared to the 26% currently). This reflects the delayed approval of the programmes, national authorities’ efforts to finalise the 2014-2020 programmes, successive adjustments, and the implementation of NextGenerationEU.
Considering the latest information on implementation, Members States are forecast to speed up implementation in 2026 compared to 2025 to reduce the risk of automatic decommitments. To that effect, it is assumed that the submission of payment claims would exceed the historical profile in 2027 and reach cruising speed in 2028 and 2029. The RAL remaining at the end of 2029 is expected to be paid in equal proportions in 2030 and 2031.
The mid-term review of cohesion policy provides Member States with opportunities to benefit from one-off pre-financing and higher EU co-financing by redirecting 2021-2027 resources towards the Union’s new priorities in the areas of competitiveness, defence, affordable housing, water resilience and energy transition. The related programme amendments must be submitted before the end of 2025, to allow for additional pre-financing to be paid in 2026, with an expected net budgetary impact of EUR 4.1 billion. The forecast assumes that any effect of the revision, as proposed by the Commission, would be accommodated within the payment ceilings for 2027, and is part of the overall assumption that Member States will manage payments so that decommitments are avoided.
Following the adoption of the STEP Regulation in March 2024, 6 Member States reprogrammed STEP resources already in 2024. Overall, 29 cohesion policy programme amendments were adopted by the end of December 2024 corresponding to EUR 5.9 billion (ERDF, JTF, ESF+) XVIII . Based on that, pre-financing is estimated at EUR 1.77 billion (30% of the total STEP amount). In line with the applicable legal base, 30% pre-financing was also paid on the total JTF allocation using NGEU resources (EUR 5.9 billion paid in 2024). In 2025, 5 Member States reprogrammed STEP resources. Overall, 9 programme amendments were adopted by the end of March 2025 corresponding to EUR 0.4 billion. Based on that, the additional pre-financing paid in 2025 amounts to EUR 0.12 billion (30% of the dedicated STEP priorities’ amount).
Heading 3 - Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and Just Transition Fund
The payments forecast for Pillar I of the CAP, market-related expenditure and direct payments, amounts to EUR 81 billion over 2026-2027.
The implementation of Pillar II under the CAP strategic plans, the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD), started in 2023. The transitional provisions extending the 2014-2020 programmes up to 2022 allowed the continuation until 2025 of their implementation under the n+3 rule, i.e. providing one more year to complete payments compared to the rules for the 2023-2027 CAP strategic plans.
The forecast of payments stemming from the MFF 2021-2027 includes the payments from the 2023-2027 CAP Plans as well as those linked to the extension of the rural development programmes to 2021 and 2022 that will be completed by 2027 (see point 2.3. payments on pre-2021 commitments). The forecast also considers the transfers between pillars of the Common Agricultural Policy communicated by Member States XIX , which resulted in a net transfer of EUR 2.6 billion from Pillar I (EAGF) to Pillar II (EAFRD) for the years 2025-2027. This transfer amount might change as Member States are able to review their transfer request up to 31 August 2025.
The implementation of the 2023-2027 CAP plans is expected to gain momentum in 2025 and 2026 and it is projected to reach a cruising speed in 2028 and 2029, with smaller payments in 2030 and closure expected in 2031. The completion of the 2014-2022 operational rural development programmes is expected for 2027 with very limited payments for 2026 and 2027. Most of the interim payments are to be paid in 2025.
For the Just Transition Fund, the first substantial payments under the MFF ceilings are expected in 2026. The payment of the pre-financing related to STEP under NextGenerationEU has already taken place in 2024 and additional payments are expected for 2025 also from NextGenerationEU funding. From 2027 Member States would be able to use only payments financed through the MFF.
Other
For the European Recovery Instrument (EURI) the amounts for 2026 and 2027 reflect the draft budget proposal and the accompanying financial programming, respectively.
The Ukraine Reserve, a special instrument that mobilises non-repayable support over and above the MFF expenditure ceilings, is outside of the scope of this forecast.
5.Payments for the completion of outstanding commitments made before 2021
The payments of outstanding commitments (RAL for reste à liquider) made before 2021 is forecast at EUR 13.4 billion for the period 2026-2031.
Cohesion policy
Most payments on pre-2021 commitments relate to cohesion policy, which is approaching closure. The projections are based on the latest Member States’ forecast (January 2025) and information on the implementation on the ground. Following the changes proposed in STEP, the deadline for submitting the final application for an interim payment for the final accounting year was extended by 12 months to 31 July 2025. Nevertheless, limited payments are expected in 2025 and afterwards, considering the retention rate and pre-financing clearance. No payments have been included in the draft budget for 2026.
Common Agricultural Policy
The completion of the 2014-2022 operational rural development programmes is expected for 2027..
Other programmes
Most of the outstanding payments for the rest of the budget originating before the current MFF are related to Heading 1 – Single Market, Innovation and Digital – and Heading 6 – Neighbourhood and the World.
6.Decommitments
The decommitments’ forecast stemming from the programmes of the current and prior MFFs until end-2027 stands at EUR 5.5 billion. The increase is mostly driven by the cohesion programmes under the current MFF and the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD).
The MFF 2028-2034 proposes substantive changes to the delivery modes with a view to simplify and accelerate implementation. The Commission expects full take up of the commitments proposed for the next MFF. Therefore, no specific decommitment forecast is produced before the actual start of the new programmes.
Heading 2a – Cohesion policy
Considering the latest available forecast from Member States, the risk of de-commitments for the completion of the programmes 2014-2020 has lowered compared to last year’s report. Overall, the risk of decommitments at the end of 2027 is reduced thanks to acceleration in implementation, and additional pre-financing stemming from the mid-term review of cohesion policy.
Heading 3 - Common Agricultural Policy and Just Transition Fund
The forecast of decommitments from rural development programmes 2014-2022 is broadly stable compared to last year. It is estimated at EUR 3.1 billion which is about 2.4% of the total allocation, a share comparable to that of the 2007-2013 rural development programmes. As regards the timing, decommitments are expected by the end-2027 when most of the closure payments will be processed. This is one year later than expected in last year’s report. This assumption appears more prudent given the substantive number of programmes to handle (more than 100).
At this stage it is unclear if there will be decommitments under the 2023-2027 CAP Strategic Plans. If any, those are expected to take place at closure (i.e. end 2030/beginning 2031).
Other programmes and headings
For the programmes directly managed by the Commission, the decommitment forecast is built on the most recent project-level information. As in the previous report, the projections for the decommitments related to the MFF 2021-2027 programmes are based on the decommitment rates of the predecessor programmes. The exact year of decommitment would depend on the closure of individual projects and actions that cannot be forecast with precision.
7.NextGenerationEU
NextGenerationEU XX is a temporary emergency instrument for crisis response, recovery, and resilience measures following the COVID-19 crisis. The non-repayable support component constitutes external assigned revenue to fund reform and investment priorities – in particular through the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) – and through reinforcing a number of key programmes for the recovery.
All payments under NextGenerationEU will be concluded by end 2026, except for small amounts linked to administrative expenditure. The estimates of the expected implementation are drawn separately for each programme (see Table X), based on the draft budget for 2026. Some amounts of decommitments are expected, primarily for EAFRD (EUR 0.4 billion).
8. Evolution of the level of outstanding commitments
The new MFF is expected to start with a RAL of EUR 339 billion, which compared to last year’s forecast (EUR 365 billion) is a decrease of EUR 26 billion. This result is partly driven by the acceleration of cohesion, for which under the N+3 decommitment rule payment are backloaded towards the end of the MFF and after. NextGenerationEU RAL will be absorbed by end 2026 when all the payments will be completed, except for small amounts linked to administrative expenditure.
The forecast for the RAL stemming from the 2021-2027 and previous MFFs (excluding NextGenerationEU) declines from 1.85% to 1.7% in 2027 as a share of EU -27 GNI.
The RAL at the end of 2034 is forecast at EUR 331 billion or 1.3% of EU-27 GNI. It will originate mostly from commitments under the MFF 2028-2034 as the RAL for pre-2028 commitments is expected to be largely closed by end 2033.
As a share of the MFF 2028-34 the RAL at the end of 2034 will represent approximately one fifth, which is smaller than the same metric for the current MFF. The new generation of programmes are expected be implemented more rapidly compared to historic benchmarks, notably in relation to the expenditures under shared management.
9.Forecast of inflows of the EU budget
2026-2034
Until 2027, the revenue forecast is based on the own resources system currently in place, under Council Decision (EU, Euratom) 2020/2053. The revenue as of 2028 is forecast based on the system proposed by the Commission with the proposal for a new Own Resources Decision.
The revenue projections are based on the Commission spring 2025 economic forecast and long-term growth projections.
The EU budget is financed by own resources and other revenue. In addition, the Union is empowered to borrow funds to finance NextGenerationEU, which are channelled into the budget through external assigned revenue. The present forecast focuses on the revenue necessary to finance the budget expenditure within the MFF.
The own resources needed to finance the budget are determined by total expenditure less ‘other revenue’. Accordingly, the forecast of the EU budget revenue is based on the principle that expenditure must be matched by revenue; therefore, total revenue equals total expenditure.
Since 2021, in line with the Withdrawal Agreement (part V), the United Kingdom contributes to the EU budget in relation to outstanding commitments of previous financial frameworks. The United Kingdom’s contribution constitutes ‘other revenue’ of the EU budget. It will progressively phase out as the outstanding commitments will be settled. Other miscellaneous revenues are assumed to remain nominally constant at the level of the 2026 Draft Budget.
Own resources – national contributions and customs duties – account for most of the revenue needed to finance budget expenditure. The spending cycle determines the development of national contributions over the forecast period. The projected increases towards the end of the MFF will lead to increasing national contributions in 2026-2027, which is consistent with historical patterns. On average for the period 2026-2027, national contributions are projected at EUR 169 billion per year or 0.86% of the EU’s Gross National Income.
10.Revenue sources
Traditional own resources (customs duties) are projected to grow over the period 2027-2034 at the same rate as GNI in current prices of each Member State starting from the level of gross customs duties projected for the Draft Budget 2026. From 2028, the parameters of the new Own Resources Decision proposal are used.
Revenue from the VAT-based own resource is projected starting from the VAT bases of the individual Member States included in the Draft Budget 2026. The VAT bases are projected to grow over the period 2027-2034 at the same rate as GNI in current prices.
The plastics-based own resource is projected starting from non-recycled plastic packing waste included in the Draft Budget 2026. The corresponding plastic packaging waste is projected to grow at the same rate as GNI in constant prices over 2027-2034. Recycling rates are projected to converge linearly towards the EU recycling target of 55%, which must be achieved by 2030.
The GNI-based own resource for the EU-27 is calculated as the remaining difference between all other own resources and other revenue on the one hand and the forecast expenditure on the other. The parameters for the own resources specified in the Own Resources Decision determine the Member States’ share in the total amount of national contributions that is needed to balance the EU budget.
The Commission proposal for a Own Resources Decision includes several additional own resources, as follows.
The revenue forecast for the own resource based on the European Emission Trading System (ETS1) is based on an assumed carbon price of EUR 88.33 in 2025 prices. The number of auctioned emission allowances is derived from the legal provisions in the ETS Directive 2 .
Regarding the own resource based on e-waste, first the underlying non-collected waste of electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) in a Member State in a given year is calculated. Collection rates are projected to converge linearly towards the EU collection target of 65% by 2034.
Revenue from the Tobacco Excise Duty Own Resource (TEDOR) is projected based on the Tobacco Excise Duty Directive and its proposed recast.
Revenue from the own resource based on the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is projected assuming the same carbon price as with ETS1.
The projections for the Corporate Resource for Europe (CORE) are based on 2023 firm-level data of the Orbis database. An annual lump-sum contribution from all companies that operate and sell in the EU is applied as specified in the Commission proposal for a new Own Resources Decision.
Other revenue of the EU budget traditionally includes staff contributions, revenue accruing from the administrative operation of the institutions, contributions and refunds in connection with Union agreements and programmes, interest on late payments and fines, revenue from borrowing and lending operations, revenue from fees not assigned to specific expenditure, and miscellaneous revenue – as well as surpluses from previous years. Given their inherent volatility, most of these components are difficult to forecast. Therefore, the amount included in the Draft Budget 2026 (i.e., EUR 3 billion) is assumed to remain nominally constant over the forecast period.
Since 2021, in addition to the above-mentioned items, other revenue of the EU budget includes the United Kingdom’s contribution related to outstanding commitments (RAL) for which the United Kingdom is liable, pension obligations and other components of the financial settlement, as laid down in the Withdrawal Agreement 3 . This is also reflected in the proposed financing of the Draft Budget 2026.
The contribution of the United Kingdom related to outstanding commitments on 31 December 2020 is determined by applying the United Kingdom’s financing share to the forecast RAL payments for each year of the 2026-2030 period. The resulting annual contribution takes into account the payment modalities set out in Article 148 of the Withdrawal Agreement.
The forecast of other revenue includes the United Kingdom’s contribution to pension liabilities for Members and EU high-level public office holders as specified in Article 142(5) of the Withdrawal Agreement. The United Kingdom contribution to staff pensions (an estimated EUR 333 million in the Draft Budget 2026) enters the EU budget as external assigned revenue and is therefore not part of the long-term forecast of other revenue.
In any given year, the total own resources collected by the Union may not exceed the own resources ceiling set in the Council Decision (EU, Euratom) 2020/2053 of 1.4% of EU-27 GNI, with an additional temporary increase of 0.6% of EU GNI for covering all liabilities of the Union from the borrowing on the capital markets to fund NextGenerationEU.
For the period 2028-2034, the own resources ceilings set in the proposed new the Own Resources Decision are increased as follows:
·1.75% under the permanent ceiling.
·0.6% under the ceiling for covering all liabilities of the Union from the borrowing on the capital markets to fund NextGenerationEU.
·0.25% for the crisis instrument, in case of activation.
11.Conclusions
The initiatives put forward to support Member States, third countries and specific sectors have accelerated payments across all budget programmes. The improved implementation of 2021-2027 cohesion policy programmes decreases the risks of decommitments. It is assumed that Member States will do what is needed to avoid decommitments, benefitting also from policy incentives, such as those proposed for the mid-term review of cohesion policy. For the years ahead, Member States will need to implement NextGenerationEU funds by 2026.
The RAL at the end of the current MFF is expected to decrease to EUR 330 billion. In the MFF 2028-2034, the new delivery model for programmes in shared management together with the N+1 decommitment target is expected to accelerate implementation and substantially reduce the RAL at the end of the next MFF. For the other programmes, the simplifications proposed are also expected to accelerate payments compared with historical trends, which would also contribute to containing the RAL.
The MFF payment ceiling remains sufficient to cover the projected payments until the end of the current MFF. Overall, the net margin in 2026 is EUR 18.6 billion and in-2027 including programme-specific adjustments is estimated at EUR 3.2 billion.
In the 2028-2034 MFF, the Commission’s proposed payments ceiling is following a frontloaded profile as of the second year of the MFF, driven predominantly by the more accelerated payment profile for the National and Regional Partnership plans compared to their predecessors.
The revenue to finance the budget follows the MFF expenditure cycle. The proposed package of new own resources is expected to keep national contributions within known boundaries.
Annex II – Results of the forecast
All values are in billions of EUR, current prices, unless otherwise specified. Some totals may not tally due to rounding.
Table 1.1 – Long-term forecast of future outflows over 2026-2034 for the MFF
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TOTAL |
| Commitment Ceiling | 182.9 | 186.2 | 269.5 | 282.9 | 283.1 | 290.4 | 294.1 | 285.4 | 279.7 | 2 353.9 |
| Payment Ceiling | 201.2 | 195.2 | 270.0 | 300.7 | 297.1 | 292.8 | 277.4 | 274.7 | 267.5 | 2 379.1 |
| In addition, adjustment for MFFR Article 5 (estimate for future years) | 0.0 | 2.6 | ||||||||
| Commitments (programmed)* | 193.4 | 194.8 | 266.7 | 279.9 | 280.1 | 287.1 | 290.6 | 281.8 | 276.0 | 2 350.4 |
| Forecast Payments** | 192.2 | 196.6 | 270.0 | 300.7 | 297.1 | 292.8 | 277.4 | 274.7 | 267.5 | 2 375.4 |
| Of which Special Instruments*** | 6.5 | 0.1 |
* In line with the draft budget for 2026, including the Ukraine Reserve allocation and appropriations stemming from Article 5 of the MFF Regulation and Article 15(3) of the Financial Regulation and Article 15(3) of the Financial Regulation.
** Includes the estimated level of payments for the Ukraine Reserve in 2026 only.
*** The amounts for special instruments cover the Solidarity and Emergency Aid Reserve, the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund, the Brexit Adjustment Reserve, the Ukraine Reserve, the EURI Instrument, and the Flexibility Instrument. In the subsequent tables, the payments related to the mobilisations of the Flexibility Instrument and the EURI Instrument are included within the respective headings. No assumption is made for future use of special instruments in 2028-2034.
Table 1.2 – Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF
| MFF Heading | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | Total |
| 1 Single Market, Innovation and Digital | 21.5 | 22.9 | 18.6 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 83.7 |
| 2 Cohesion, Resilience and Values | 73.6 | 74.3 | 70.9 | 70.4 | 37.7 | 23.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 351.0 |
| 2.1 Economic, Social and territorial cohesion | 58.7 | 61.7 | 68.3 | 68.9 | 37.0 | 22.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 318.1 |
| 2.2 Resilience and Values | 14.9 | 12.6 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 32.9 |
| 3 Natural Resources and Environment | 53.0 | 56.1 | 15.9 | 15.9 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 149.7 |
| 3.1 Market related expenditure and direct payments | 40.5 | 40.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 81.0 |
| 3.2 Other programmes of Natural Resources and Environment | 12.5 | 15.6 | 15.9 | 15.9 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 68.7 |
| 4 Migration and Border Management | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 16.7 |
| 5 Security and Defence | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 10.6 |
| 6 Neighbourhood and the World | 15.5 | 18.3 | 15.3 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 70.3 |
| 7 European Public Administration | 13.5 | 13.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27.4 |
| Outside the MFF | 3.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.2 |
| Special Instruments | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 |
| Total | 188.1 | 191.5 | 125.5 | 110.9 | 57.5 | 36.0 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 714.4 |
Table 1.3 – Payments for the completion of pre-2021 commitments
| MFF Heading | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | Total |
| 1 Single Market, Innovation and Digital | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 4.4 |
| 2 Cohesion, Resilience and Values | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 |
| 2.1 Economic, Social and territorial cohesion | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 |
| 2.2 Resilience and Values | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 Natural Resources and Environment | 0.1 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 2.9 |
| 3.1 Market related expenditure and direct payments | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3.2 Other programmes of Natural Resources and Environment | 0.1 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 2.9 |
| 4 Migration and Border Management | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| 5 Security and Defence | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| 6 Neighbourhood and the World | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 3.9 |
| Total | 4.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 13.4 |
Table 1.4 – Payments for 2028-2034 commitments
| MFF Heading | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | Total |
| 1. Economic, social and territorial cohesion, agriculture, rural and maritime prosperity and security | 108.3 | 122.7 | 150.9 | 150.7 | 157.8 | 144.3 | 130.3 | 965.0 |
| 2. Competitiveness, prosperity and security | 14.8 | 40.6 | 57.4 | 68.8 | 73.1 | 82.9 | 86.2 | 423.7 |
| 3. Global Europe | 4.8 | 9.9 | 14.6 | 19.6 | 24.8 | 28.9 | 32.3 | 134.9 |
| 4. Administration | 14.9 | 15.6 | 16.3 | 16.9 | 17.5 | 18.1 | 18.7 | 117.9 |
| Total | 142.8 | 188.8 | 239.1 | 256.0 | 273.2 | 274.2 | 267.5 | 1 641.5 |
Table 2 – Forecast decommitments 2026-2027
| MFF Heading | Completion | MFF | Total |
| 1 Single Market, Innovation and Digital | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| 2 Cohesion, Resilience and Values | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.0 |
| 2.1 Economic, Social and territorial cohesion | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| 2.2 Resilience and Values | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 Natural Resources and Environment | 3.2 | 0.1 | 3.2 |
| 3.2 Other programmes of Natural Resources and Environment | 3.2 | 0.1 | 3.2 |
| 4 Migration and Border Management | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5 Security and Defence | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6 Neighbourhood and the World | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Total | 4.4 | 1.2 | 5.5 |
Table 3 – Long-term forecast of outflows for NextGenerationEU
| Programme | 2026 | 2027 | Total |
| Horizon Europe | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| InvestEU | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| European Social Fund (ESF) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| European Recovery and Resilience Facility | 100.4 | 0.0 | 100.4 |
| Union Civil Protection Mechanism (RescEU) | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.4 |
| Just Transition Fund | 3.3 | 0.0 | 3.3 |
| Total | 107.0 | 0.1 | 107.1 |
Table 4 – Change in the total outstanding commitments from 2026 to 2034
| Source | RAL start-2026 (estimate)* | Commitments 2026-2034 | Payments 2026-2034 | Decommitments 2026-2027 | RAL end-2034 |
| MFF | 355.9 | 2 350.4 | 2 368.8 | 5.5 | 331.9 |
| NGEU | 107.4 | 0.1 | 107.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Total | 463.3 | 2 350.5 | 2 475.9 | 5.9 | 331.9 |
* The RAL at the start of 2025 excludes amounts generated from other revenues (excluding NextGenerationEU), which is not included in the table.
Table 5 – Long-term forecast of future inflows of the EU budget over 2026-2030
| INFLOWS | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Total | |
| Own Resources ceiling in % of EU Gross National Income | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | ||
| of which temporary increase for NGEU | 0.60% | 0.60% | 0.60% | 0.60% | 0.60% | ||
| Own Resources ceiling expressed in EUR billion* | 385.2 | 398.1 | 411.1 | 424.6 | 437.8 | ||
| of which temporary increase for NGEU | 111.5 | 115.6 | 119.4 | 123.3 | 127.4 | ||
| Net amount of traditional own resources** | a | 21.4 | 22.1 | 22.9 | 23.7 | 24.4 | 114.5 |
| National contributions | b | 167.4 | 171.2 | 101.5 | 85.6 | 30.9 | 556.6 |
| of which VAT-based own resource | 24.8 | 25.6 | 26.4 | 27.3 | 28.1 | 132.1 | |
| Plastic-based own resource | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 33.8 | |
| GNI-based own resource | 135.8 | 138.8 | 68.3 | 51.6 | -3.9*** | 390.6 | |
| Total own resources | c=a+b | 188.7 | 193.3 | 124.42 | 109.3 | 55.4 | 671.1 |
| of which own resources to finance NGEU liabilities**** | 8.02 | ||||||
| Other revenue (incl. provisional UK contribution) | d | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 15.2 |
| TOTAL REVENUE | c+d | 192.2 | 196.6 | 127.4 | 112.0 | 58.0 | 686.3 |
* Own Resources ceiling – calculated based on the Spring 2025 economic forecast for the Gross National Income of the EU27
** Traditional own resources are estimated on the basis of 25% retention rate for collection costs.
*** For 2030 the amount of the GNI OR results in surplus which will be returned to the Member States.
**** For 2026 and 2027 based on current financial programming.
Table 6 – Long-term forecast of future inflows of the EU budget of 2028-2034 MFF
| INFLOWS | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | Total | |
| Own Resources ceiling in % of EU Gross National Income* | 2.35% | 2.35% | 2.35% | 2.35% | 2.35% | 2.35% | 2.35% | ||
| Own Resources ceiling expressed in EUR billion | 483.1 | 498.9 | 514.4 | 530.2 | 546.3 | 562.7 | 579.5 | ||
| Total Own resources: | a | 266.7 | 297.7 | 294.1 | 289.9 | 274.5 | 271.8 | 264.3 | 1 959.0 |
| of which Net amount of traditional own resources** | 34.5 | 35.7 | 36.8 | 38.0 | 39.2 | 40.4 | 41.6 | 266.3 | |
| VAT-based own resource | 26.6 | 27.5 | 28.3 | 29.2 | 30.1 | 31.0 | 31.9 | 204.4 | |
| Plastic-based own resource | 9.3 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 69.2 | |
| European Emission Trading System based own resource (ETS1) | 8.8 | 11.7 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 75.6 | |
| E-waste based own resource | 16.2 | 16.5 | 16.7 | 16.9 | 17.1 | 17.3 | 17.4 | 118.0 | |
| Tobacco Excise Duty own resource (TEDOR) | 13.0 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 88.3 | |
| Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 10.8 | |
| Corporate Resource for Europe (CORE) | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 53.3 | |
| GNI-based own resource | 149.9 | 175.8 | 170.2 | 161.0 | 144.3 | 140.5 | 131.4 | 1 073.0 | |
| Other revenue (incl. fees and provisional UK contribution, European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS) fee) | b | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 21.1 |
| TOTAL REVENUE | c=a+b | 270.0 | 300.7 | 297.1 | 292.8 | 277.4 | 274.7 | 267.5 | 1 980.1 |
* Own Resources ceiling – calculated based on the Spring 2025 economic forecast for the Gross National Income of the EU27
** Traditional own resources are estimated on the basis of a 10% retention rate for collection costs.
(1) COM(2025)574
(2) Directive 2003/87/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 October 2003 establishing a scheme for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Community and amending Council Directive 96/61/EC
(3) All components of the United Kingdom contribution are laid down in Article 148 of the Withdrawal Agreement. The forecast only includes components which are quantifiable at this stage, namely the provisional United Kingdom contribution to the financing of payments resulting from outstanding commitments prior to 2021 for which the United Kingdom is liable under Article 140 and pension liabilities specified under Article 142.5 of the Withdrawal Agreement as well as the amounts the Union owes to the United Kingdom under Article 145 (European Coal and Steel Community) and Article 146 (Union investment in the EIF).
(I)
In light of the upcoming deadline for the tabling of the Commission proposals for the next MFF package, complying with the deadline provided for in Article 253(2) of the Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2024/2509 was not possible for this report.
(II)
Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2024/2509 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 September 2024 on the financial rules applicable to the general budget of the Union (recast), OJ L 2024/2559, 26.9.2024.
(III)
COM(2021)343, 30.6.2021. This is the first edition of this report for the 2021-27 MFF period.
(IV)
Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2020/2093 laying down the multiannual financial framework for the years 2021 to 2027, OJ L 433I, 22.12.2020, p. 11.
(V)
Council Regulation (EU) 2020/2094 establishing a European Union Recovery Instrument to support the recovery in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis, OJ L 433I , 22.12.2020, p. 23 (‘NextGenerationEU’).
(VI)
Unless otherwise specified, all amounts in the report are expressed in current prices.
(VII)
Council Regulation [(EU, Euratom) 20XX/XXX * COM(2025) 571
(VIII)
Council Decision (EU, Euratom) 2020/2053 of 14 December 2020 on the system of own resources of the European Union and repealing Decision 2014/335/EU, Euratom, OJ L 424, 15.12.2020, p. 1.
(IX)
OJ C66 I, 19.2.2019, p.1.
(X)
Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council, Technical adjustment of the multiannual financial framework for 2026 in accordance with Article 4 of Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2020/2093 laying down the multiannual financial framework for the years 2021 to 2027. COM(2025) 800 final.
(XI)
Statement of estimates of the European Commission for the financial year 2026. SEC(2025) 250.
(XII)
Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2024/765 of 29 February 2024 amending Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2020/2093 laying down the multiannual financial framework for the years 2021 to 2027, OJ L, 2024/765, 29.02.2024.
(XIII)
Article 5 of the MFF Regulation provides for the additional allocation in commitment and payment appropriations for a pre-defined list of programmes, for an amount equivalent to certain types of fines within pre-defined minimum and maximum amounts.
(XIV)
Joint declaration by the European Parliament, the Council and the Commission on the re-use of decommitted funds in relation to the research programme (C/2024/1972), OJ C, C/2024/1972, 29.02.2024.
(XV)
Regulation (EU) 2024/795 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 29 February 2024 establishing the Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP), and amending Directive 2003/87/EC and Regulations (EU). 2021/1058, (EU) 2021/1056, (EU) 2021/1057, (EU) No 1303/2013, (EU) No 223/2014, (EU) 2021/1060, (EU) 2021/523, (EU) 2021/695, (EU) 2021/697 and (EU) 2021/241, OJ L, 2024/795, 29.02.2024.
(XVI)
The amount is complemented by EUR 20 billion REPowerEU grants financed under the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and EUR 2.1 billion in transfers from the Brexit Adjustment Reserve (BAR).
(XVII)
Report from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council, Long-term forecast of future inflows and outflows of the EU budget (2025-2029). COM(2024) 276 final.
(XVIII)
The cut-off date for reporting related to STEP is March 2025.
(XIX)
Member States decided to transfer funds between direct payments and rural development. The result was set out in Commission Delegated Regulation 2023/813 of 8 February 2023.
(XX)
The cut-off date for NextGenerationEU figures is 16 May 2025.