Bijlagen bij COM(2025)315 - Nuclear Illustrative Programme presented under Article 40 of the Euratom Treaty for the opinion of the European Economic and Social Committee - Hoofdinhoud
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| dossier | COM(2025)315 - Nuclear Illustrative Programme presented under Article 40 of the Euratom Treaty for the opinion of the European Economic and ... |
|---|---|
| document | COM(2025)315  |
| datum | 13 juni 2025 |
The Commission will provide guidance to Member States on how to design Contracts for Difference (CfD) for energy-related projects, including their potential combination with Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), in line with the state aid rules, as indicated in Draghi’s report and announced in the Clean Industrial Deal. In line with the approach in the Electricity Market Design, the Commission will engage with the EIB to promote PPAs, including cross-border PPAs, in a technology-neutral way.
When designing features of public support, Member States should retain incentives to ensure beneficiaries’ efficient behaviour, e.g. delivering construction on time and within budget and dispatching capacity based on market signals.
5. Beyond electricity generation
Both the existing nuclear reactor fleet and new projected investments at EU and global level are largely focused on electricity supply. However, nuclear technologies can also provide a source of low-carbon heat for households and various industrial applications and are also instrumental in producing medical radioisotopes.
1. Heat supply
Many industrial processes require high-temperature heat, traditionally generated using fossil fuels. Currently, the demand for industrial heat in the EU is around 1900 TWh, with approximately 960 TWh needed at temperature levels between 500°C and 1000°C. In line with the projected electrification of demand sectors, studies (35) see the demand of high temperature heat dropping by 40% to about 620 TWh in 2050.
Heat from nuclear power plants has already been used or considered for district heating, the chemical industry or water desalination. Besides, SMR developers see a place for such technologies in the high temperature heat market, as they can contribute either supplying heat directly for hard-to-abate processes or via hydrogen production (Figure 5).
Supplying district heating is one of the potential use cases for SMRs. For instance, the CityHeat project, which was selected by the European Industrial Alliance on SMRs, explores this use case.
Figure 5 – SMRs deployment scenarios with shares of heat/hydrogen supply.
2. Medical radioisotopes
Nuclear research reactors play a crucial role in the production of radioisotopes, which are essential for both healthcare and various industrial applications.
In the medical sector, radioisotopes are indispensable for diagnosis of diseases, such as cancer, cardiac, pulmonary and neurological ones, and they are increasingly important for cancer therapy. Projections show that the number of patients eligible for radiopharmaceutical / radioligand therapies in the EU will triple until 2035 (36). Therefore, secure and long-term supply of medical radioisotopes in the EU is vital for all citizens.
The EU is a global leader in this market, consistently providing more than 65% of the global irradiation services, with a strong export position. However, there are vulnerabilities upon which to act timely, such as specific foreign dependencies (e.g. supply of high-assay low enriched uranium – HALEU) and ageing of EU research reactors. While two research reactors are being built to produce radioisotopes for medical use and are scheduled to be ready in the early 2030s, innovation should also be pursued to diversify production means and increase the system resilience.
To date, other western countries, namely the US and the UK, have already invested substantial amounts for domestic supply of HALEU in the order of USD 1.2 billion and GBP 300 million (37). Member States should catch up with similar investments in securing source materials and developing new industrial capacities.
Under the Strategic Agenda for Medical Ionising Radiation Applications (SAMIRA) Action Plan (38), the Commission started a process towards establishing the “European Radioisotope Valley Initiative” (ERVI) to secure EU supply of medical radioisotopes (39).
6. Strategic independence and diversification
The EU’s strategic independence is linked to the strengths and vulnerabilities of the supply chain. In view of national plans including nuclear energy to decarbonise the energy system and maintain energy security, there is a need to nurture a competitive EU nuclear industry ecosystem.
1. Control of the fuel cycle supply chain
Ensuring security of supply from ore to nuclear fuel should remain a strategic objective of the Member States with nuclear energy programmes including elimination of current dependencies and avoidance of dependence in the future. All Member States should also consider the strategic importance of security of supply of radioisotopes.
Russia’s unjustified military aggression against Ukraine has disrupted the global supply system for all sources of energy. It has affected the EU market across the entire nuclear fuel supply chain: in particular conversion, enrichment, and fuel fabrication services are to be strategically handled; to a lesser extent uranium mining requires attention, too.
EU’s strategic independence is vulnerable insofar as conversion and enrichment services (both in homeland and in like-minded partners) are not sufficient to ensure adequate supplies in view of projected nuclear expansion scenarios. In the ‘base case’ scenario EU conversion supply capacity barely matches foreseen demand until 2050, while EU enrichment supply capacity is forecasted to be marginally sufficient with a definite lack in relation to HALEU, especially needed for certain SMRs.
Uranium conversion and enrichment prices almost tripled from February 2022 to December 2023. Conversion and enrichment capacities in the EU must increase to meet demand and avoid dependence on any single or unreliable supplier. While investments into new enrichment capacities have been announced (40), investments into conversion capacities are lagging, see Figure 6. Both conversion and enrichment service providers need long-term commitments to underwrite these investments.
Figure 6 – Global demand for conversion services vs supply capacity projections. (tU as UF6 per year).
Most EU utilities can purchase nuclear fuel from at least two alternative suppliers. As an exception, dependence on a single design and supplier of fuel was the case for Russian design nuclear reactors operating in the EU (VVER) and became a vulnerability for the security of supply (41). Almost all concerned EU operators have taken action to diversify nuclear fuel supply; alternative VVER fuel supplies are expected to become fully available by 2027, pending regulatory approval.
Uranium mining in the EU has significantly declined over the past decades, leading to a heavy reliance on imports from five countries to meet the region’s nuclear energy needs. The global uranium market is facing challenges due to Russia’s unjustified military aggression against Ukraine, the coup d’état in Niger, production issues, difficulties in transportation, and stronger demand, which influenced supply and demand forecast setting upward pressure on uranium prices.
Phasing out supplies from unreliable partners is a necessity to ensure economic security of the EU. The prerequisite would be to ensure that safe and open markets could make up for the Russian capacity. Increased cooperation between the EU and reliable international partners is crucial in this context. The EU and several countries should coordinate to ensure a resilient nuclear supply chain. The Commission has presented the Roadmap towards ending Russian energy imports (42) announcing measures for security of supply, such as restrictions on nuclear supply contracts and diversification targets for Member States.
2. Capacity of the industrial life-cycle supply chain
The nuclear energy supply chain in the EU has a pronounced domestic character and should be able to address possible upcoming disruptions that are due to geopolitical, raw materials availability, or climate change. Maintaining a robust, reliable and interlinked supply chain is essential to materialise the forecast demand for nuclear capacity in the EU. In the recent decades, the EU’s nuclear supply chain was marked by both contraction and reorientation trends towards maintenance and upgrades rather than new construction activities.
Current plans for new builds in the EU imply that the supply chain needs to ramp up to larger capacities to produce all needed components for a nuclear power plant. To achieve 60 GWe of new nuclear power capacity by 2050, Member States and industry should build some 20 GWe simultaneously, representing about 15 large nuclear reactors built concurrently over 25 years. The Commission’s analysis identified critical manufacturing processes, such as heavy forging, that require immediate intervention (43). Making the nuclear energy supply chain in the EU more resilient would also enable further diversification of nuclear technologies and their related fuel cycle.
Availability of workforce and skills
A high demand for skilled workers spans across all facets of the nuclear ecosystem, including nuclear engineers and scientists, power plant operators, technicians, and regulatory staff. Impending workforce bottlenecks, exacerbated by an ageing workforce and an insufficient inflow of younger professionals, due to low attractiveness of the sector and a deficit in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) education, create various challenges to the EU nuclear authorities and industry.
A study (44) provided estimates on the EU nuclear sector needs in terms of jobs. Additional 180 000 – 250 000 new professionals will have to be engaged until 2050, in addition to replacing retiring employees. Approximately 100 000 – 150 000 professionals may be required to cover the construction phase of planned new nuclear power plants. Another 40 000 to almost 65 000 professionals are necessary to operate and maintain the planned nuclear power plants. Lastly, the decommissioning sector may require a further 40 000 professionals. Even under a no-growth scenario (equivalent to the ‘base case’ scenario), around 100 000 people would still need to be recruited to replace retiring workers. Particular attention is also required in the fusion sector to maintain the EU leading role.
A multi-tiered response comprising of mapping workforce needs, enhancing education and training, improving communications, offering better working conditions, and supporting workers’ mobility (from adjacent industries or from third countries), and access to nuclear research infrastructures may address this challenge.
If no action is undertaken, Europe will suffer a skills and workforce shortage in the nuclear sector, including for certain regulatory bodies. This gap may be even starker in cutting-edge technologies such as SMRs. The workforce needs replenishment, rejuvenation, and a transfer of skills and experiences to the next generation. Whereas the nuclear sector must take the initiative to attract new talent, the Commission and Member States can support this process, e.g. through Net-Zero Industry Academies and by reinforcing further Euratom Research and Training Programme action in support to the assessment, maintenance and development of the necessary strategic competences at EU level.
The SKILLS4NUCLEAR project (45), launched in 2025 with an EU funding of EUR 1.5 million under Horizon Europe, aims to strengthen capacity-building in nuclear safety, decommissioning, waste management, radiation protection, and medical applications while fostering industry-driven workforce development. Additionally, the project will establish a European forum for nuclear workforce and skills to update training programmes based on emerging developments and to develop reskilling and upskilling initiatives for workers.
The need for robust European nuclear research infrastructure has a vital significance as it supports cutting-edge research, fosters innovation, and enhances collaborative efforts among Member States. This includes the development and maintenance of experimental facilities, data-sharing platforms, and integrated research networks that enable scientists and engineers to conduct comprehensive studies in nuclear safety, safeguards, waste management, fusion energy, and the development of next-generation reactor technologies. It also ensures that Europe remains at the forefront of nuclear science and technology, maintaining Europe's competitive edge in the global research landscape and in meeting future energy and environmental challenges.
3. Strategic international cooperation
The Euratom’s external relations framework is instrumental to promote the highest nuclear safety standards, facilitating knowledge and technology exchange, as well as support the EU competitive nuclear supply chain, via forward looking partnerships and trade and commercial cooperation (46).
In view of bolstering EU’s strategic autonomy, reviewing existing cooperation agreements or entering in new ones is essential. They may also help strengthening compliance with the international nuclear standards and facilitate incorporating emerging and innovative technologies, such as SMRs and fusion energy.
Most importantly, increased cooperation between the EU and reliable partners will enhance security of supply for uranium and nuclear fuel cycle services and will facilitate access to markets for the EU supply chain to nurture its industrial capabilities.
To enhance cooperation between the EU and reliable partners, the Euratom Community should embark in either renewing (e.g. with Canada or Kazakhstan) or negotiating new Nuclear Cooperation Agreements and Memoranda of Understanding.
7. Preparing for a future with nuclear fusion energy
The EU’s flagship project ITER, based in France, is the world’s largest fusion experiment aimed at demonstrating the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion. As a major driver of innovation ITER is bringing the knowledge and industrial base which are essential for the development of the first demonstration fusion power plant in the EU.
It is very important to anchor further investments in ITER and fusion in general in a broader European action aimed at mastering fusion not just as a research topic, but also as a tool for long-term energy independence, decarbonisation as well as nearer-term European industrial competitiveness. Public-private partnerships can accelerate commercialisation of fusion energy by leveraging the strengths of both sectors. Continued spending on the development of a fuel cycle for fusion technologies and on closing the technology gaps will be needed in parallel with the definition and implementation, if necessary, of a differentiated and proportionate regulatory framework for fusion installations.
In line with Draghi’s report and as announced in the Action Plan for Affordable Energy, the Commission will adopt a comprehensive EU fusion strategy, whereby ITER is confirmed as a cornerstone, to accelerate fusion energy commercialisation.
Such developments are supported by research and technology development carried out by the European Partnership EUROfusion and Fusion for Energy (F4E). The commercial deployment of fusion energy should be accelerated by strengthening the large fusion community brought together in the Fusion Expert Group, the European Fusion Stakeholder Platform, the launching of a Public Private Partnership with industry. and the support to the fusion startups.
8. Conclusions
As several EU countries have chosen to rely on nuclear energy, it will continue to play an important role in the EU’s diversified energy system. Therefore, it is essential to ensure its safe, efficient and sustainable integration and to reap all benefits nuclear energy may bring, including system integration.
All investment projects in the EU nuclear industry need to comply with the highest standards of nuclear safety, radiation protection, radioactive waste management, and safeguards applicable in the EU. New nuclear projects must adhere to highest safety objectives, ensuring that innovative reactor designs meet these stringent requirements. Member States should intensify their efforts to provide long-term solutions for the management of high-level radioactive waste and spent fuel.
In 2050, a wide range of outcomes is anticipated for the actual installed capacity. Lifetime extensions carried out under strict safety conditions and new plants will be critical as well as the ability of the industry to deliver on time and on budget.
Substantial investments are implied across the entire nuclear life-cycle until 2050. Compared to the previously published PINC, the Commission has not observed a significant change in envisaged investment amounts, however plans are more articulated and diversified, looking at innovative technologies and the full industrial ecosystem. Specific attention is needed for SMRs development and actual deployment, to enhancing the resilience of the supply chain, guaranteeing sufficient, diversified and sovereign EU capacity for conversion and enrichment, regulatory capacity, research, the workforce, and delivering a secure supply of medical radioisotopes.
To thrive, the EU nuclear supply chain needs stable long-term commitments, greater standardisation levels and enhanced cooperation. Investing in the competitiveness of the EU nuclear industry and strengthening its supply chain is essential, with the ambition to operate worldwide.
1() COM/2025/85 final.
2() COM/2025/79 final.
3()COM(2024) 63 final.
4()Article 194 of the Treaty on Functioning of the European Union (TFEU).
5() COM(2025) 440 final/2, EUR-Lex - 52025DC0440R(01) - EN - EUR-Lex.
6() The nuclear illustrative programme of the Commission, or Programme Illustrative Nucléaire Communautaire (PINC) is an obligation of the Commission under Article 40 of the Euratom Treaty.
7() Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Spain, France, Hungary, Netherlands, Romania, Slovenia (Croatia), Slovakia, Finland, and Sweden.
8() Slight increase in nuclear power production in 2023 - News articles - Eurostat.
9() Mochovce 3 in Slovakia was connected to the grid in January 2023, Olkiluoto 3 in Finland started commercial operation in May 2023, and Flamanville 3 in France was connected to the grid in December 2024. One reactor in Slovakia (Mochovce 4) and two others in Hungary (Paks II) are under construction.
10() IEA (2025), The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/the-path-to-a-new-era-for-nuclear-energy, Licence: CC BY 4.0.
11() COM(2025) 440 final/2, EUR-Lex - 52025DC0440R(01) - EN - EUR-Lex.
12() European Industrial Alliance on Small Modular Reactors - European Commission (europa.eu).
13()COM(2025) 440 final/2, EUR-Lex - 52025DC0440R(01) - EN - EUR-Lex – Action 7
14() Council Directive 2009/71/Euratom as amended by Council Directive 2014/87/Euratom.
15() Council Directive 2011/70/Euratom.
16() In particular Directive 2011/92/EU on the assessment of the effects of certain public and private projects on the environment, Directive 2001/42/EC on the assessment of the effects of certain plans and programmes on the environment, Directive 92/43/EEC on the conservation of natural habitats and of wild fauna and flora, and Directive 2000/60/EC establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy.
17()Regulation (EU) 2020/852, OJ L 198, 22.6.2020, p. 13–43; Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2022/1214, OJ L 188, 15.7.2022, p. 1–45.
18()Tonnes of heavy metal, abbreviated as tHM, is a unit of mass used to quantify uranium, plutonium, thorium, and mixtures of these elements.
19()Shedding light on energy in Europe – 2025 edition, ESTAT, ISBN 978-92-68-22424-3.
20() The figure of EUR 8.33 per MWh represents a ratio, where: (i) the numerator is sum of incurred expenditures for decommissioning and all waste management operations except the geological disposal; and (ii) the denominator is the electric energy generated during the plant’s operational life.
21() COM(2024) 197 final, Report from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament on progress of implementation of Council Directive 2011/70/EURATOM and an inventory of radioactive waste and spent fuel present in the Community's territory and the future prospects - THIRD REPORT.
22()This figure represents the sum of Member States' individual estimates. However, Member States’ estimates vary widely in terms of methodology, assumptions, completeness of data, scope and time frames.
23() COM(2017) 237 final.
24() Adjusting also for Brexit.
25() COM(2025) 274 final.
26() In 2023, the Finnish Government granted the Loviisa nuclear power plant a new operating license until the end of 2050, at which point it will have completed more than 70 years of operation. These presented scenarios reflect only potential LTOs of currently operational nuclear power plants. They do not consider the potential re-start of already shutdown plants, which could add further capacity if realised.
27() European SMR pre-Partnership - nucleareurope, Note that this scenario include power for electricity generation and heat supply.
28() The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy, IEA, 2025, The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy. Considering large-scale reactors and SMRs jointly, the IEA projected global installed nuclear generation capacity to increase from 416 GWe in 2023 to between 650 GWe, 870 GWe, and more than 1,000 GWe by 2050 across three scenarios.
29() Pathways to 2050: the role of nuclear in a low-carbon Europe, Compass Lexecon, 2024, Pathways to 2050 - nucleareurope.
30() The Commission calculated the present value using a discount rate of 7.5%. The investment needs indicated include new build and lifetime extensions. Section 3.3 covers investment needs for decommissioning and management of radioactive waste and spent fuel separately.
31()The quantitative example assumes that construction costs increase proportionally with construction time.
32() Accompanying Staff Working Document, Sections 2.2.2 and 2.2.3.
33() IEA (2025), The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/the-path-to-a-new-era-for-nuclear-energy, Licence: CC BY 4.0
34() Commission Decision (EU) 2015/658 of 8 October 2014 on the aid measure SA.34947 (2013/C) (ex 2013/N) which the United Kingdom is planning to implement for support to the Hinkley Point C nuclear power station.
35() Accompanying Staff Working Document, Section 3.1.2.
36() Accompanying Staff Working Document, Section 3.2.1.
37() Accompanying Staff Working Document, Box Supply of High-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU).
38() SAMIRA Action Plan - European Commission.
39()COM(2025) 440 final/2, EUR-Lex - 52025DC0440R(01) - EN - EUR-Lex – Action 7
40() France: EIB and Orano sign a loan agreement for €400 million relating to the project to extend the Georges Besse 2 uranium enrichment plant, European Investment Bank, 10 March 2025.
41() Fuel to those reactors has been originally delivered from TVEL (RU), subsidiary of Rosatom within bundled contracts offering uranium and all related services including production of fuel assemblies.
42() COM(2025) 440 final/2, EUR-Lex - 52025DC0440R(01) - EN - EUR-Lex.
43() Accompanying Staff Working Document, Section 4.3.2.
44() Report on the European nuclear ecosystem, prepared by Deloitte for DG ENER, in preparation for publication.
45() https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/101213280
46() In addition. the European Instrument for International Nuclear Safety Cooperation (INSC) is a key tool for strengthening the adoption of the highest international nuclear safety standards globally.
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